Development of a CyanoHAB Risk Model for the Ohio River: EPA RARE Grant
Citation:
Nietch, C. AND L. Gains-Germain. Development of a CyanoHAB Risk Model for the Ohio River: EPA RARE Grant. The Ohio River Valley Water Sanitation Commission's 219th Technical Committee Meeting, Covington, KY, February 12 - 13, 2019.
Impact/Purpose:
Develop a risk characterization model for cyanobacteria harmful algae blooms (HAB) on the Ohio River based on the conditions that produced the record-setting HAB in 2015. The goal is to provide stakeholders of water quality on the Ohio River an indication in terms of a measurement of similarity of how river conditions in the present compare to conditions in the past the produced the HAB. 5 million people rely on the Ohio River for drinking water. Drinking water treatment plant operators would consider a risk characterization tools valuable for helping to maintain drinking water safety.
Description:
We have used historical time series data for flow on the Ohio River and developed a theoretically rational means of characterizing the unique hydrologic conditions that coincided with the record-setting HAB in 2015. Two statistical techniques were used to derive significant models characterizing the uniqueness of the 2015 flow conditions and express flows at different times in relative terms. One expresses this similarity in terms of a probability and the other a distance. If stakeholders of river water quality consider these measures useful, we could derive these similarity measures in the present time, and with more study, forecast them. It also appears likely that the real-time similarity measures could be served to river stakeholders through a password protected Shiny-App or similar. It is important to keep in mind, however, that these measures convey risk in terms of the similarity of flow conditions in the present to those that produced a CyanoHAB in the past. Caution must be taken to not misinterpret them as directly predicting the likelihood of a HAB.